Human Lives under threats from Global Emission

Recent Extreme Weather

For many years, scientific studies and assessments have been hinting at the potential for greater climate variability and, subsequently, extreme weather events. Since 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record globally, it should come as no surprise that 19 countries set new national high-temperature records. According to the Annual Report of National Climatic Data Center:

  • Unprecedented summer heat in western Russia caused wildfires and destroyed one-third of Russia's wheat crop; the combination of extreme heat, smog, and smoke killed 56,000 people.
  • In China, extreme heat and the worst drought in 100 years struck Yunan province, causing crop failures and setting the stage for further devastation by locust swarms. (National Climatic Data Center. State of the Climate Global Analysis: Annual 2010)
  • There have already been three separate historic floods in the United States in 2011. Damages from Hurricane Irene, much of which is flood-related, are estimated to be between $7 and $10 billion, making it one of the top ten most damaging hurricanes ever to hit the US.
  • Mumbai, India, recorded its highest ever daily rainfall with a deluge of 39 inches that flooded the city in July of 2005, killing hundreds of people and displacing as many as 1 million.
  • In 2010, Rio de Janeiro received the heaviest rainfall in 30 years—almost 12 inches in 24 hours, causing nearly 300 mudslides and killing at least 900 people.

Our Mother has suffered vast damage from Global Warming and Climate Change, nevertheless, the world has witnessed series of global pandemic directly threaten human lives in the past 20 years, and most recent, COVID-19 is part of this.

According to Nature, during the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of human lives at stake across the continents have died, a range of types of business services has also frozen by policy interventions from the government itself. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by 17% by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by 26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020.

From a scientific perspective, the temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement has marked self-confidence about the resistance of nature and showing a correlation of human impacts.

The GreenHouse

"We live in a Greenhouse" - stated by NASA USA, so whenever investigate in the Mother of Earth, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is the first consideration. CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are GHGs that both occur naturally and also are released by human activities. Before human activities began to emit these gases in recent centuries, their natural occurrence resulted in a natural greenhouse effect. Without the natural greenhouse effect, the earth's surface would be nearly 16°C colder on average, well below freezing. However, humans are currently adding to the naturally occurring GHGs in the atmosphere, causing more warming than occurs naturally. Scientists regularly name this human-magnified greenhouse effect the "enhanced greenhouse effect."

Figure imported from UN Report 2019

In 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released a report said that average global concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases—CO2, CH4, and N2O—are rising because of human activities. Since pre-industrial times, CO2 has increased by 40%, CH4 by 148%, and N2O by 18%.

According to the report from the UN Environment published in 2019 about the latest trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, GHG emissions growth was 2.0% in 2018. Fossil CO2 emissions, from both energy use and industry, dominate total GHG emissions and reached a record 37.5 GtCO2 per year in 2018, after growing 1.5% per year in the last decade and 2.0% in 2018. The growth in fossil CO2 emissions was due to robust growth in energy use (2.9% in 2018).

Global Temperatures

The USGCRP report says that the current trajectory of rising GHG concentrations is pushing the climate into uncharted territory. CO2 levels are much higher today than at any other time in at least 800,000 years. Through all those millennia, there has been a clear correlation between CO2 concentrations and global temperatures, adding geological support for the strong connection between changes in the strength of the greenhouse effect and the earth's surface temperature. Scientists are certain that the burning of fossil fuels is the main source of the recent spike in CO2 in the atmosphere. Changing weather patterns will also change the distribution and incidence of insect-borne and waterborne diseases, such as malaria and cholera.

As a result, global average temperatures have risen both on land and in the oceans, with recognizable effects previously happening that forecast progressively extreme changes later on (Journal of Climate). Ice sheets the world over are in retreat. Polar ice is melting at record rates. Storms, including hurricanes, are increasing in intensity. Ecosystems around the world already are reacting as plant and animal species struggle to adjust to a shifting climate.

Emissions and GDP

GHG emissions are growing globally, despite progress in climate policy, as the countries where emissions are declining are not able to offset the growth in emissions in other countries. The United Nations has estimated that the economic burden of global warming could be on the order of $300 billion by 2050. Following UN Report in 2019, a relatively small number of countries produce a large majority of global GHG emissions. In fact, the 25 countries with the largest GHG emissions account for approximately 83 percent of global emissions. Most also rank among the most populous countries and those with the largest economies. Indeed, most of the largest GHG emitters also rank among the most populous countries and those with the highest gross domestic product (GDP). The major emitters include almost an equal number of developed and developing countries, as well as economies in transition

Figure imported from UN Report 2019

Total GHG emissions grew 1.5% per year in the last decade (2009 to 2018) without land-use change (LUC) and 1.3% per year with LUC, to reach a record high of 51.8 GtCO2e in 2018 without LUC emissions and 55.3 GtCO2e2 in 2018 with LUC. GHG emissions growth was 2.0% in 2018 and there is no sign of a peak in any of the GHG emissions.

Solution for large-scale impacts

As G20 members account for 78% of global GHG emissions, they largely determine global emission trends and the extent to which the 2030 emissions gap will be closed. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming concluded that limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot would mean reducing global CO2 emissions by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reaching net zero around 2050.

An increasing number of countries and regions are committing to zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emission targets, but not at the scale and pace required.

  • 2 of G20 members (France, UK) have passed legislation.
  • Only 3 G20 members (EU and Germany and Italy as part of EU1 ) are currently in process of passing legislation.
  • 15 G20 members have no binding (net-) zero-emission targets.

The US EPA shows the largest contributors to total U.S. emissions are the electric power and transportation sectors. Significant emissions also come from the industrial and agricultural sectors. In each of these areas, technologies and practices already exist that can reduce emissions. The major long-term sectoral transformations needed to reach net-zero GHG emissions globally can be vast of actions and policies but these 3 statements play an initial role:

  1. Full decarbonization of the energy sector, based on renewable energy and electrification across sectors – this includes phasing out coal-fired power plants.
  2. Decarbonization of the transport sector in parallel with modal shifts to public transportation, cycling, and walking.
  3. Shifts in industry processes towards electricity and zero carbon and substitution of carbon-intensive products.

One of the solutions to diminish emissions from materials production including supply-side measures is improved energy efficiency in production processes. Reducing the demand for materials is also an option to mitigate emissions and can be achieved by improving their efficiency. Research on and development of demand-side material efficiency and substitution strategies has progressed substantially in the past decade. In 2020, SSE LICMA has successfully researched and released a useful solution for sustainable energy, This solution can be applied to all internal combustion engines without planning or using input materials with the vision to the leading edge of the revolution in technology and science that creates a better world for future generations.

References

  1. Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet. 2020. /Climate Change: Vital Signs Of The Planet/. [online] Available at:https://climate.nasa.gov
  2. Daniel G., H. and Jay, G., 2011. /Extreme Weather & Climate Change: Understanding Link Managing The Risk/. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.
  3. International Energy Agency [IEA] 2019a; Worrell et al. 2016.
  4. Emissions Gap Report 2019, UN Environment Programme.
  5. Le Quéré, C., Jackson, R.B., Jones, M.W. /et al./ Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. /Nat. Clim. Chang./ *10,*647–653 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x
  6. Levitus, S., J.I. Antonov, T.P. Boyer, R.A. Locarnini, H.E. Garcia, and A.V. Mishonov, 2009: Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155.
  7. National Climatic Data Center, (2011). U.S. Climate Extremes Index, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved November 22, 2011, from: http://1.usa.gov/vAH4Qx
  8. National Climatic Data Center, Top 10 US Weather/Climate Events of 2010
  9. U.S. EPA, 2010. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2008. EPA 430-R-08-005. Washington, D.C. http:// www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads10/US-GHGInventory-2010_Report.pdf
  10. Smith, T.M., R.W. Reynolds, T.C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). Journal of Climate, 21:2283-2296
  11. International Energy Agency [IEA] 2019a; Worrell et al. 2016